Calculator · ETFs

Leveraged ETF decay calculator

Enter the fund's daily multiple and a run of daily index returns. The leveraged ETF decay calculator compounds both paths day by day and shows how far the fund lands from its multiple of the index's total return.

Your numbers

2 or 3 for leveraged funds, -1, -2 or -3 for inverse funds.
Hypothetical returns. Separate with commas, spaces or new lines.

Index total return

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Fund total return

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Multiple x index return

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Gap (points)

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The working

    Why a daily reset drifts

    A leveraged or inverse fund targets a multiple of the index's return for one day, then resets. Over several days the fund compounds its own daily results, so the order of the daily moves changes where it ends up. Take a -3x fund and an index that rises 2% and falls 2% three times over. The index ends about 0.12% lower. Three times that, flipped, would be a gain of about 0.36%. The fund falls about 1.08%. Each up day costs it 6% and each down day earns 6%, and a 6% loss followed by a 6% gain leaves 99.64 of every 100.

    When the gap works in your favor

    Drift can run the other way. In a steady trend with little back-and-forth, compounding helps the fund: a 2x fund on an index that rises 1% a day for ten days ends about 21.9% higher, ahead of twice the index's 10.5%. Enter a run of same-sign days to see it. The gap grows largest when daily moves are big and keep switching direction, the case volatility decay describes.

    What is left out

    The fund values come from the daily multiple alone. Real funds also charge expenses, pay for the swaps and futures that create the exposure, and miss the daily target on some days, which tracking error measures. Each of those widens the gap. Inverse ETFs reset daily sets out how long to hold one before the drift outweighs the trade, and inverse ETFs by index sets the -1x, -2x and -3x funds side by side. The ETF desk covers the rest.

    Questions about this calculator

    Can a -3x fund lose everything in one day?

    Arithmetically, yes. If the index rose by a third in a single day, three times that move in the other direction is a total loss. A move that size is rare for a broad index, but any very large day does damage that a later recovery in the index cannot undo. The fund path stops at zero if a day takes it there.

    Does holding a leveraged ETF for a month give me L times the monthly return?

    Only by coincidence. The fund delivers L times each day's return, and the product of those days differs from L times the index's result over the month. In a choppy month the fund usually trails that multiple, and in a smooth trend it can beat it. Enter the month's daily index returns to see the gap for that exact path.

    Where do I get daily index returns?

    Any chart with daily closes gives them. Each day's return is that day's close divided by the prior close, minus one, times 100. Enter them oldest first. Use the index the fund tracks and leave out the fund's own price history, which already has expenses and financing costs built in.

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